There are three factors that drive my certainty. Sales of pure plug-in electric cars rose by more than 20000% between 2010 and 2015, from 138 to 28,188. A very conservative projection indicates at least 200,000 vehicles on our roads by 2020. And this is before the Tesla effect kicks in – when EVs move from the niche to the mass consumer market.
Secondly, the results of My Electric Avenue (MEA), an Ofgem LCNF funded project by Scottish and Southern Energy Power Distribution and EA Technology Limited, clearly demonstrated that it was possible to recruit large clusters of volunteers to drive EVs for 18 months. There are two significant points here, the volunteers paid for the leased EVs, and after the trial 58% of them decided to say good bye to the internal combustion engine for good. This to me suggests that we are extremely close to the tipping point for EV uptake. Something that Tesla has also recognised – it’s planning to launch an electric car for the mass market.